Friday, February 8, 2008

"Ho! Haha! Guard! Turn! Parry! Dodge! Spin! Ha! Thrust!"

Thanks Chris. You helped me solidify in my mind something that's been bugging me this whole time. Because my problem all along is simply that I didn't understand how anyone can cling to one issue to such a degree that he will (as I perceived it) blindly assign loyalties to the first candidate to raise his hand and say "I support/am against ____." Surely even such a large issue as the war isn't of a single dimension and cannot be solved as if it were. There are matters of diplomacy, war, strategy, and yes, the economy all of which play into the successful execution of a war strategy.

You helped me in my attempt to shoehorn Denny's thought process into my own in some manner, and for that I thank you... because I was about to give up.

And yet, I take issue with your summary of the argument insomuch as I still don't see what you're describing as a single-issue decision. If I weigh all of the factors, then the decision was a culmination of those factors pro and con. To borrow your example: if I'm out of peanut butter, the decision to go get more isn't merely weighed against the price of gas or the depth of the snow, but an assessment of the accumulated return on investment. Is a jar of peanut butter worth the return on a trip or do I wait? All factors are weighed, some given more weight than others, and some factors can indeed be equal. Hunger can only be my prime mover if I am either psychologically obsessed with peanut butter or we assume my cupboard is actually bare and my decision took on a portent beyond mere peanut butter. Otherwise, the thought experiment breaks down as I shrug and make grilled cheese.

Obviously I'm being a little silly, but as I see it, it's necessary to point out the very real peril of a wartime presidential election forces us to think in terms of portent and consequence in a manner in which we might normally let slide. In short, we cannot assume ideal circumstances in our experiment, which makes the conclusion that all decisions are ultimately single-issue driven overly simplistic. Your logic path is well and good when one of the two candidates speaks to at least one of your primary motivators, or if you're making a decision with multiple possible outcomes such as peanut butter or a car. But when the field of available choices is narrowed by outside forces, what do you do if no one meets your primary criterion? What if both of them do? ( Don't laugh, it could happen. If your core issue is certain aspects of immigration reform then all the candidates begin to look oddly similar...)

So... Do you stay home? Of course not.

Say that Denny wants to vote for a conservative candidate that speaks to his libertarian views on the narrow role of the presidency. Well and good, but none exists. So he goes down his list until he finds a candidate that speaks to the one thing remaining on his list that is written in red ink and votes for the guy he sees as best serving that issue -- in this case the war and that means McCain. McCain doesn't speak to his core issues - the role of the federal government - and neither do any of the others in either party. So he takes his second or third or tenth choice, moving down his list until he finds a candidate that suits him.

That's not single-issue voting. Or at least it doesn't fit my definition of single-issue voting. Which I admit is a summary of something I think Denny tried to say awhile back but it got drowned out. (My apologies)

I can't tell you how Denny thinks, per se. I can tell you that we disagree on certain salient details of constitutional law and one or two other things, and we agree that the government has taken too much power for itself and needs to cough it up. From recent discussions I've come to the following conclusion, and feel free to check me on this. What I see here is a decision made because his choices were limited for him by external forces and his more nuanced views could not be brought to play. That doesn't mean his choice lacks nuance or that he is ignoring the full panoply of issues. His core issues aren't being addressed by any of the candidates, so he has to chose based on the one core issue that is being addressed.

I retroactively object to calling this a "single- issue vote" simply because he only has one issue that he agrees with his candidate on. (Some of us should be so lucky.)

For most voters, the final decision comes down to weighed alternatives and sometimes, there is a single issue that puts one or the other over the top. But pretending that this is really voting on a single issue denies the complexity of the decision-making process.

Back to our decision-making & logic argument then. In a wide-open field with multiple possible choices and the very real possibility of getting close to your ideal choice, I see the equation working. In the binary state of the ballot, I think it breaks down.

In the binary decisions at the ballot box where we are constrained by the nature of the process from having the full panoply of choices to select from, this appears to be a single-issue decision but that doesn't make it so.

What about when the choice we would have made - based on the deal-breaking issue - isn't in the offing? Then a voter must then examine their views, match as many as possible to the expressed views and record of the candidates we do have to chose from, hold their noses and vote. In that case, the decision wasn't because of one issue, it was because the accumulation of multiple issues which tipped the scales in the direction of that candidate.

Decision making - even in constrained circumstances such as an election - is not often the result of a single deal-breaking issue burning a hole in your ballot (unless the candidates are so diametrically opposed as to become caricatures) but a series of conditional statements ("if____, then____") that ultimately lead to the most acceptable conclusion. Many factors weighed, some of them equally, building to a logical conclusion. Not one issue, but many contributing to our choice.

The more your available choices are narrowed for you, the more invisible this decision-making process becomes because external factors are limiting your ability to respond as you might or might want to. But that does not necessarily translate into a single-issue vote. And if it does, then the term is being artificially applied.

And yes, it's funny, but it's entirely possibly we could all end up voting for the same man for a whole host of different reasons. If I do, you can bet I'll have more than one of them... and here's the thing... and I think you will too.

14 comments:

chris j pluger said...

of course my analogy breaks down when applied to peanut butter. everything does. As Calvin wrote:

infinitum non capax finiti

(http://web.mac.com/jeffmeyers/iWeb/My%20Pages/Cacoethes%20Scribendi%20II/29D92E5D-AC88-4CD8-BB02-7BE4BC5802FB.html)

chris j pluger said...

here's someone who seems to agree with Scott:

http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=020408E

Dennis L Hitzeman said...

Scott, I've benefited in this decision making process because electing a wartime president was very, very high on my list, perhaps second only to electing a president that would make some binding pledge to literally abide by the Constitution or to veto any spending bill that increases the size of the government.

In fact, I find myself in the odd position of voting for a candidate that fulfills my primary requirement for a president--being a strong wartime leader--and very few of my secondary or tertiary requirements.

Where I think the disagreement has lain to date is in the fact that I do not consider economic manipulation as part of my requirements simly because, as a conservative libertarian, I believe fully in the power of the free market. That makes the disagreement, I think, an ideological one and not a political one.

Dennis L Hitzeman said...

A note on calling myself a conservative libertarian: unfortunately, we need words to describe positions, but those words often create impressions other than what was originally intended. For anyone who immediately conjures up images of Hannity or Bortz or Coulter, please scratch them out. I disagree with that crew very often, as in voting for John McCain.

Maybe I can start a new political movement called Dennyism whose definition I can control...

chris j pluger said...

See, that's what i was talking about in my original post. The only candidate that completely fills all of Denny's positions is, well, Denny. In view of the fact that he's not running, enter my "formula" post (which was a very roundabout way to say almost exactly what I understand Scott is saying in his parry).

Dennis L Hitzeman said...

Chris, that's true, but I am prevented by certain moral obligations from being dict--er--president.

David said...

It looks like voting for McCain just got easier for some folks too since Romney dropped out.

For my part, there's no doubt that any reasonable person -- which I still believe all of us to be -- weighs multiple factors. What ultimately makes it look more narrow is that a singular choice is made. At that point of action, the reasons become academic.

Chris and Scott's posts and a review of Denny's and my argument over the war clarified for me that my real goal was to diffuse Denny's assessment that the war is the number one issue.

Denny's original post basically urged readers to do two things: 1) vote for John McCain, and by implication, 2) believe that the "war on terror" is the most important issue facing us.

I think we agree that fighting terrorists is an important issue. As Scott implies or states in this post is that there are different strategies and tactics to that fight. It is here that Denny and I (and all of us in some combination) have a difference of opinion.

That said, I'm not sure Denny has really articulated what strategy he embraces. I have assumed he views the military's role as critical and that he believes that our actions in Iraq are righteous and effective, but he hasn't really declared the specifics of his position.

I'm not urging him to do so, though it would be interesting, but I do think that that is where the future of this argument, if we choose to pursue it, lies.

For those who wish to avoid that discussion, let me sum it up before it happens. Denny will present his views complete with reasons and sources. I will present my competing views with reasons and sources. Neutral observers will acknowledge that we both make very good points, and Denny and I will go on thinking as we currently do. It could be fun, though. Or, we could talk about basketball. Or peanut butter. Yum.

Dennis L Hitzeman said...

David, you are right that I both intended to urge people to consider a certain view and that I have not articulated a specific strategy. Both actions were intentional. I believe the purpose for the first is clear.

The second issue is one that I am very cautious about discussing simply because the nature of the discussion lends itself easily to misunderstanding and offense, and these results simply because at some point because we are talking about killing people who claim religion as their primary justification for acts of war.

Even with deep assurances of civility, this second issue would be a difficult one to address. Please don't take this caution as either a lack of a view or as fear, but as a direct attempt to avoid clouding the intellectual issue.

All the same, if anyone is interested in discussing this topic in some other venue than a public weblog, I welcome the opportunity to converse.

chris j pluger said...

Good points David.

Good answer, Denny.

I like peanut butter.

David said...

Denny,

I applaud your caution; I probably need more of it myself.

I didn't mean to imply that you were dodging the issue. I was only pointing out that it hadn't been expressed explicitly because while pursuing our discussion, I hadn't expressed my assumptions specifically either.

"All the same, if anyone is interested in discussing this topic in some other venue than a public weblog, I welcome the opportunity to converse."

Hmm, that sounds like an invitation to quaff some suds at the Pub, don't you agree, Chris?

Eternal Apprentice said...

Chris, your first link doesn't work.

I wish I could attend that pub discussion... though I think I promised recently to lay off politics if I came out to Ohio, so I wouldn't want to be forsworn.

I like peanut butter too, but I don't like basketball so if I have any vote on the next topic, more on the former than the latter please.

And because it's always nice to bring things full-circle... You all offend the crap out me, so suspensions all around!

Dennis L Hitzeman said...

Yea! Suspensions, Suspensions!

chris j pluger said...

the first link is unimportant. It's a quick random explanation of infinitum non capax finiti, which you can find via Google faster than I could figure out how to fix the link.

And yeah, I was thinking suds at the pub sounded pretty damn good. Name your time.

Maybe if the same hottie is there, she can convince us to try that bourbon ale...

David said...

Gee, Scott, I thought you and I were basically making the same arguments (you better than me most often). Now I find out I've been offending you and I have to tote the whole bale at the Pub!? I find that offensive, sir! No soup for you! Or suds, in this case.